项目来源：国家自然科学基金（面上项目）
项目名称：面向区域的边坡抗震可靠性评价方法研究（项目批准号41572279）
主要负责人：刘晓
项目时间：2016/01-2019/12
项目经费：77.9万元
项目简介：
边坡动力可靠性研究是边坡稳定性研究的新阶段，将区域地质灾害危险性评价方法与力学分析方法相结合是其中的前沿方向之一，具有重要的科学意义和广阔的应用前景。本项目以汶川地震区为例，重点解析映秀镇周边和北川新县城周边两处人口密集的山地、丘陵与平原交界地带，将精细化的力学分析手段融入到面向区域的滑坡灾害危险性评价中来，夯实区域地质灾害评价的力学基础，开展面向区域的边坡抗震可靠性评价方法研究。将工程地质、岩土地震工程、可靠度理论、机器学习、地理信息技术等领域的理论与方法有机地相结合，挖掘控制地震边坡稳定性的关键因子，提出简洁易行的震区边坡稳定状态劣化敏感性评价模型。以地理信息技术完成区域范围内地震边坡动力可靠性劣化程度的分区，实现边坡动力可靠性评价从“点”到“面”的拓展。本项目旨在为地震多发区的次生边坡地质灾害预测预报与防控提供新理论、新方法和可供参考的应用实例。
Abstract:
The research of dynamic slope reliability is the latest stage of the many branches of research focused on slope stability analysis, and the application of mechanics analysis in regional geological hazard assessment is in the forefront of that research which has important scientific significance and prospects for broad practical application. This project has four salient features. First, taking the Wenchuan earthquake area as an example, this project will focus on the two densely populated zones: Yinxiu town and Beichuan new town which located in the border area of mountains, hills and plains. Second, by utilizing refined mechanical analysis tools, this project will add strength to the fundamental mechanics of the theory of regional
landslide hazards assessment. Third, in order to reveal key factors that control slope stability, this project will combine theories and methods from multiple fields, including engineering geology, geotechnical earthquake engineering, reliability theory, machine learning, geographic information technology, and other related areas. Finally, we will present a model for evaluating the susceptibility of slope reliability deterioration based on geographic information technology. We expect the results of this project will meaningfully expand the research of dynamic slope reliability analysis from a “site-oriented” focus to a more useful “region-oriented” concept. In sum, this project is geared towards providing new ideas, methods and reference examples for the prediction and prevention of co-seismic slope failure in earthquake-prone areas.
关键词：地震滑坡；区域滑坡灾害评估；区域稳定性；边坡稳定性；工程地质数值模拟
Keywords: seismic landslide; regional landslide hazard assessment; regional stability; slope stability; numerical modeling in engineering geology
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